The FAA analyzed the risk in the Lion Air flight that crashed in October 2018, killing everyone on the plane. The analysis concluded that “didn’t take that much” for such a malfunction to happen again. The FAA made the decision to inform pilots about the hazards of an onboard sensor malfunction that led to the flight-control system pushing down the plane’s nose. The analysis concluded that they should “Get something out immediately and then mandate something more permanent.” Boeing got 10 months to implement the new design and necessary changes – April 2019 was the deadline. However, the Ethiopian Airlines crash occurred on March 10. With the two crashes 346 lives were ended.
Sometimes, the risk analysis is overly optimistic. The finding was that it would be difficult for pilots to manage the situations the planes experienced, even with the warning. Hindsight is 20/20, but it did not take a visionary to see the higher risk than the fixes assumed.